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不清楚,很多关于乌克兰在伊朗空难的理论



  周三上午,飞往基辅的乌克兰国际航班752起飞,德黑兰的气氛十分紧张。就在几个小时前,伊朗向伊拉克的两个基地发射导弹那所房子是美国军队,而伊朗军队则对美国的反击保持警惕。

  根据初步的卫星数据,飞机的起飞和上升没有什么不寻常之处。但在飞行数分钟后,这架波音737飞机坠落在地上,被大火吞没,机上至少176人丧生。

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  在最好的情况下,确定国际飞机失事的原因可能需要一年或一年以上的艰苦调查工作,并涉及多国政府的调查人员。考虑到飞机坠毁地伊朗与波音公司(Boeing)之间的紧张关系,解决德黑兰上空发生的事情可能会更加复杂。波音是一家公司,此前曾发生过两起涉及另一架737型飞机的致命事故,目前正处于危机之中。

  坠机后不久,乌克兰和伊朗发表了令人困惑和矛盾的声明。乌克兰驻伊朗大使馆最初发表声明,排除恐怖主义或火箭弹袭击。但这份声明后来被从大使馆的网站上删除,取而代之的是一份声明,称得出任何结论为时尚早。

Slide 1 of 18: Rescue teams gather at the scene after a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers crashed near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran early in the morning on January 8, 2020, killing everyone on board. - All 176 people on board a Ukrainian passenger plane were killed when it crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran on January 8, Iranian state media reported. State news agency IRNA said 167 passengers and nine crew members were on board the aircraft operated by Ukraine International Airlines.

Slide 2 of 18: Passengers' belongings are seen after the Ukraine International Airlines plane crashed after take-off from Iran's Imam Khomeini airport, on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran January 8, 2020. N

Slide 3 of 18: People and rescue teams are pictured amid the wreckage after a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers crashed near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran early in the morning on January 8, 2020, killing everyone on board. - The Boeing 737 had left Tehran's international airport bound for Kiev, semi-official news agency ISNA said, adding that 10 ambulances were sent to the crash site.

Slide 4 of 18: A relative of one of flight stewardesses, who were on the board a Ukrainian 737-800 plane that crashed on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran, reacts at Borispil international airport outside Kyiv, Ukraine, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2020. A Ukrainian airplane carrying 176 people crashed on Wednesday shortly after takeoff from Tehran's main airport, killing all onboard, Iranian state TV and officials in Ukraine said.

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Slide 5 of 18: Rescue teams work at the scene after a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers crashed near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran early in the morning on January 8, 2020, killing everyone on board. - All 176 people on board a Ukrainian passenger plane were killed when it crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran on January 8, Iranian state media reported. State news agency IRNA said 167 passengers and nine crew members were on board the aircraft operated by Ukraine International Airlines.

Slide 6 of 18: A Ukraine International Airlines carrying at least 170 passengers crashed due to technical problems soon after taking off from Tehran's Imam Khomeini airport, and all aboard were killed according to Iran's state television.

Slide 7 of 18: Search and rescue works are conducted at site after a Boeing 737 plane belonging to a Ukrainian airline crashed near Imam Khomeini Airport in Iran just after takeoff with 180 passengers on board in Tehran, Iran on January 08, 2020. All 167 passengers and nine crew members on an Ukrainian 737 plane that crashed near Iran's capital Tehran early Wednesday have died, according to a state official.

Slide 8 of 18: Rescue teams work amidst debris after a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers crashed near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran early in the morning on January 8, 2020, killing everyone on board. - All 176 people on board a Ukrainian passenger plane were killed when it crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran on January 8, Iranian state media reported. State news agency IRNA said 167 passengers and nine crew members were on board the aircraft operated by Ukraine International Airlines.

Slide 9 of 18: Search and rescue works are conducted at site after a Boeing 737 plane belonging to a Ukrainian airline crashed near Imam Khomeini Airport in Iran just after takeoff with 180 passengers on board in Tehran, Iran on January 08, 2020. All 167 passengers and nine crew members on an Ukrainian 737 plane that crashed near Iran's capital Tehran early Wednesday have died, according to a state official.

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Slide 10 of 18: Rescue teams work at the scene after a Ukrainian plane carrying 176 passengers crashed near Imam Khomeini airport in the Iranian capital Tehran early in the morning on January 8, 2020, killing everyone on board. - All 176 people on board a Ukrainian passenger plane were killed when it crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran on January 8, Iranian state media reported. State news agency IRNA said 167 passengers and nine crew members were on board the aircraft operated by Ukraine International Airlines.

Slide 11 of 18: Rescuers team check the debris from a plan crash belonging to Ukraine International Airlines after take-off from Iran's Imam Khomeini airport, on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran January 8, 2020.

Slide 12 of 18: Search and rescue works are conducted at site after a Boeing 737 plane belonging to a Ukrainian airline crashed near Imam Khomeini Airport in Iran just after takeoff with 180 passengers on board in Parand, Iran on Jan. 8.

Slide 13 of 18: Search and rescue works are conducted at site after a Boeing 737 plane belonging to a Ukrainian airline crashed near Imam Khomeini Airport in Iran just after takeoff with 180 passengers on board in Parand, Iran on Jan. 8.

Slide 14 of 18: Debris is seen from a plane crash on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2019. A Ukrainian airplane carrying at least 170 people crashed on Wednesday shortly after takeoff from Tehran’s main airport, killing all onboard, state TV reported.

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Slide 15 of 18: Debris is seen from a plane crash on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2019. A Ukrainian airplane carrying at least 170 people crashed on Wednesday shortly after takeoff from Tehran’s main airport, killing all onboard, state TV reported.

Slide 16 of 18: Debris is seen from a plane crash on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2019. A Ukrainian airplane carrying at least 170 people crashed on Wednesday shortly after takeoff from Tehran’s main airport, killing all onboard, state TV reported.

Slide 17 of 18: Debris is seen from a plane crash on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2019. A Ukrainian airplane carrying at least 170 people crashed on Wednesday shortly after takeoff from Tehran’s main airport, killing all onboard, state TV reported.

Slide 18 of 18: Debris is seen from a plane crash on the outskirts of Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2019. A Ukrainian airplane carrying at least 170 people crashed on Wednesday shortly after takeoff from Tehran’s main airport, killing all onboard, state TV reported.

  第18张幻灯片1:2020年1月8日凌晨,一架载有176名乘客的乌克兰飞机在伊朗首都德黑兰伊玛目霍梅尼机场附近坠毁,机上所有人死亡,救援队伍聚集在现场。-据伊朗官方媒体报道,一架乌克兰客机1月8日从德黑兰起飞后不久坠毁,机上176人全部遇难。国家通讯社IRNA说,由乌克兰国际航空公司运营的飞机上有167名乘客和9名机组人员。

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  1/18幻灯片 (C)Rouhollah Vahdati/ISNA/法新社/盖蒂图片社

  周三,一架载有至少176人的乌克兰波音737飞机在德黑兰伊玛目霍梅尼机场起飞后不久坠毁,机上人员全部遇难。

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  “所有可能的版本都必须加以审查,”乌克兰总统塞伦斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)说。在Facebook上发帖他补充说,乌克兰专家将前往德黑兰调查和找回乌克兰人的身体。

  这种不确定性也可能波及航空业,该行业严重依赖737-NG的商业旅行。对于波音来说,这是自2018年末印尼第一次737坠机事件以来,波音公司一系列破坏性事件中的最新一起。

  坠机的时间立刻引起了人们的怀疑。伊朗周三早些时候向美军开火,以报复美国周五的空袭。杀了一名伊朗高级将领伊朗支持的伊拉克民兵组织的领导人--这是一系列长期升级行动中的最新一次。

  美国国家运输安全委员会(NationalTransportSafetyBoard)前常务董事彼得·戈尔兹(PeterGoelz)说,调查人员应该把对袭击的考虑放在“首要议程”的位置。

  周二,也就是坠机前几个小时,FAA禁止美国客机飞越伊朗,理由是商用飞机有可能被误认为军用飞机。周三,一些非美国航空公司改变航线,以避免伊拉克和伊朗。飞行24。2014年,在乌克兰东部政府军和俄罗斯支持的分裂分子之间的战争初期,一枚俄罗斯导弹被击落。马来西亚航空公司17次航班杀死298人。

  伊朗武装部队发言人Abolfazl Shekarchi说,坠机不是任何军事行动的结果。

  伊朗新闻媒体援引谢卡切伊的话说,“他们在宣传乌克兰航班是袭击目标。”“这太荒谬了。这架飞机上的大多数乘客都是我们尊敬的伊朗青年男女。无论我们做什么,都是为了保护和保卫我们的国家和人民。“

  通常情况下,发生坠机的国家领导调查,包括飞机制造国的官员,以及受害者来自哪个国家的官员。随着美国和伊朗卷入一场不断升级的暴力冲突,显然双方的合作可能很快就会陷入困境。

  “黑匣子”,或飞行数据记录器,是从坠机现场找到的,通常被送往飞机制造商进行分析。然而,伊朗民航组织负责人阿里·阿贝扎德(Ali Abedzadeh)告诉记者半官方的梅尔通讯社伊朗不会从乌克兰国际航空公司的航班上把录像机送到波音公司。

  “我们不会把黑匣子给制造商和美国人,”梅尔引用他的话说。他说,乌克兰官员将参与伊朗对坠机事件的调查。

  然而,该航空公司承诺进行全面调查,涉及乌克兰、伊朗和波音公司的官员。泽伦斯基说,他已下令乌克兰总检察长对坠机事件展开刑事调查,并将对该国所有民航机队进行检查。

  “在全球航空领域,我们愿意认为技术专家将统治这一天,”前联邦航空局局长迈克尔·韦尔塔(MichaelHuerta)说。“但鉴于这是伊朗,我们必须拭目以待。”

  周三下午,经常参加世界其他地区航空事故调查的美国国家运输安全委员会(NationalTransportSafetyBoard)表示,尚未被要求参与调查。

  737号飞机于上午6时12分离开德黑兰的伊玛目霍梅尼国际机场。星期三。据该航空公司称,机上人员有176人,其中包括9名机组人员。公布死者的名字。伊朗当局列出了177份,而一些伊朗新闻机构引用了其他数字。

  这架飞机已经达到了将近8000英尺的高度,时速超过300英里,根据Flighttrada 24,该公司通过无线电信号跟踪飞机。。在起飞两到三分钟后,它突然停止了飞行数据的自动传输,尽管它在空中停留了几分钟。Abedzadeh先生说,客机没有就紧急情况与控制塔联系。

  伊朗学生通讯社,一个国营的媒体组织,分享一段视频它说,这显示了黎明前的坠机,一架飞机,显然是在火焰中,在远处下降,直到一次明亮的爆炸在天空中撞击。“纽约时报”发现了另一段从不同角度展示坠机的视频。

  “它把我们吵醒了,”29岁的Sajad Shirkhani说,他住在坠机地点附近。“我们下床跑出去,家里所有的窗户都坏了。我们跑到外面,我们以为我们被导弹击中了,那是一场战争。“

  飞机坠毁了论农地在哈拉杰·阿巴德村附近,距离飞机最后一次记录信号的地点西北约10英里。在应答器停止工作后,这架飞机似乎已经向西北方向靠岸,并飞行了几英里。

  坠机现场的照片和视频显示,救援人员在一个到处都是飞机残骸、熊熊大火和乘客遗物的田野里。“纽约时报”对碎片、结构损坏和血迹的分析表明,飞机坠毁时正在返回德黑兰机场。

  对受害者国籍的划分存在分歧,不过这可能是因为一些乘客持有双重国籍;伊朗的人数包括147名伊朗人和两名加拿大人,而乌克兰外交部长瓦迪姆·普里斯特科(Vadym Prystaiko)则表示,有82名伊朗人和63名加拿大人。

  加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多(Justin Trudeau)表示:“我们的政府将继续与国际合作伙伴密切合作,以确保此次坠机事件得到彻底调查,并确保加拿大人的问题得到回答。”在一份声明中说.

  飞机坠毁的另一个理论是飞机的两个引擎中有一个失灵了。伊朗道路和城市发展部官员卡西姆·比尼亚兹(Qassem Biniaz)对伊朗政府官方通讯社伊斯兰共和国通讯社(Islamic Republic News Agency)表示,飞机上的一台发动机着火了,飞行员无法重新获得控制。

  伊朗半官方媒体法尔斯通讯社,在一篇文章中说关于这架“波音737客机因频繁的技术问题而臭名昭著”的坠机事件,显然是指涉及波音737 MAX的两起坠机事件。后来,Abedzadeh先生告诉Mehr说,到目前为止还没有技术问题的证据。

  商业航空公司的飞机被设计成即使一台发动机失灵也能飞行。发动机火灾在商用喷气式飞机上相当常见,但很少导致撞车事故。

  一种“未包含的”发动机故障,其中发动机的部分解体,有时喷洒碎片,可以损坏甚至摧毁一架飞机,是罕见的。2018年,西南航空公司从纽约飞往达拉斯的航班经历过这样的紧急情况杀死一个人。

  该航空公司称,这架坠毁在伊朗的波音737-NG飞机是2016年制造的,直接从工厂交付,最近一次是在周一,也就是坠机前两天进行了定期维修。该航空公司没有就可能发生的事情提供任何理论,也拒绝就飞机是否被击落一事发表评论,但指出这架飞机是由一名训练有素的机组人员操作的。

  虽然前苏联的航空公司的安全记录一般很差,但乌克兰国际航空公司在其网站上表示,其安全经过审核,并符合FAA与外国合作伙伴共享代码航班的标准。根据乌克兰国家航空公司编制的一份飞机事故清单,它以前没有经历过一次致命的坠机事故。飞行安全基金会.

  737-NG是世界上使用最广泛的客机之一;自1998年以来,已经建造了7,000多架飞机,飞机飞行时间超过2.5亿小时,死亡事故不到12起。

  但是波音的工程在过去的一年里受到了密切关注,之前两次撞车都涉及到不同型号的喷气式飞机--波音737 MAX。这些事故,部分是由飞机上的新软件引起的,使波音公司陷入了有史以来最大的危机。自3月份以来,MAX已经在全球范围内停业,上个月该公司首席执行官被解雇。

  由于该公司正在努力获得监管机构批准的最高限价的解决方案,该飞机最近出现了新的安全风险。公司可能还需要在737-ng中评估这些风险。家庭,包括737-800。波音公司股价周三下跌近2%。

  如果德黑兰的坠机结果是机械故障,引发了对波音737-NG的质疑,那么其结果对波音来说可能是毁灭性的。波音公司在一份声明中说:“我们知道媒体对伊朗的报道,我们正在收集更多的信息。”




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